background-color: #006DAE class: middle center hide-slide-number <div class="shade_black" style="width:60%;right:0;bottom:0;padding:10px;border: dashed 4px white;margin: auto;"> <i class="fas fa-exclamation-circle"></i> These slides are viewed best by Chrome and occasionally need to be refreshed if elements did not load properly. </div> <br> .white[Press the **right arrow** to progress to the next slide!] --- background-image: url(images/titleimage.png) background-size: cover class: hide-slide-number split-70 title-slide count: false .column.shade_black[.content[ <br> # .monash-blue.outline-text[The right to access, open data, open software, diagnostics and statistics as integral components of AI] <h2 class="monash-blue2 outline-text" style="font-size: 30pt!important;"></h2> <br> <h2 style="font-weight:900!important;"></h2> .bottom_abs.width100[ *Professor Di Cook <br> Econometrics and Business Statistics*
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[https://bit.ly/Cook-MDFI](https://bit.ly/Cook-MDFI) MDFI Meetup, Nov 25 2021 <br> ] ]] <div class="column transition monash-m-new delay-1s" style="clip-path:url(#swipe__clip-path);"> <div class="background-image" style="background-image:url('images/large.png');background-position: center;background-size:cover;margin-left:3px;"> <svg class="clip-svg absolute"> <defs> <clipPath id="swipe__clip-path" clipPathUnits="objectBoundingBox"> <polygon points="0.5745 0, 0.5 0.33, 0.42 0, 0 0, 0 1, 0.27 1, 0.27 0.59, 0.37 1, 0.634 1, 0.736 0.59, 0.736 1, 1 1, 1 0, 0.5745 0" /> </clipPath> </defs> </svg> </div> </div> --- class: middle .pull-left[ <img src="images/di_reading.jpg" style="width: 500px; border-radius: 70%"> ] .pull-far-right[ ## A little background Studied mathematics and biochemistry and education in Australia. Went to New York to be an artist, but did a PhD on statistical graphics. Moved home to Australia to Monash in 2015 `\(^1\)`, and am the only Australian member of the R Foundation. ] .footnote[.monash-blue2[1 *The Business School probably has the largest concentration of statisticians at Monash*]] <!-- Talk about art and sport --> --- ## My history in open source software <img src="slides_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-1-1.png" width="90%" /> <br> <img src="images/xgobi.png" width="21%"> <img src="images/ggobi.png" width="21%"> <img src="images/orca.png" width="21%"> <img src="images/cranvas.png" width="21%"> --- class: wider background-image: url(images/glaciers.png) background-size: 40% background-position: 95% 50% .pull-left[ # Involvement in data competitions - Infovis 2001: Tech bubble boom and bust - ASA Data expo 2007: Climate change - ASA Data expo 2009: US air traffic - Sunlight Foundation 2010: Design for America ] --- class: transition middle # Where does open data and open source software get us today? --- background-image: url(images/australia_slipping.png) background-size: cover --- background-image: url(images/australia_slipping.png) background-size: cover count: false .fill-box[Every time the OECD PISA scores are released there are press articles lamenting the [decline in Australian scores](https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-australias-slipping-student-scores-will-lead-to-greater-income-inequality-128301). And how badly Australian girls perform in math relative to boys.] --- count: false <img src="slides_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-2-1.png" width="80%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- count: false <img src="slides_files/figure-html/PISA-1.png" width="100%" /> Gap between girls and boys. --- count: false <img src="slides_files/figure-html/math_map-1.png" width="110%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- count: false <img src="slides_files/figure-html/read_map-1.png" width="110%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- count: false # đĢ Getting the data <br> <br> <br> - [OECD PISA](https://www.oecd.org/pisa/): Testing of 15 yr olds conducted every three years since 2000, from 43 to now 90 countries, and from 125k to now 600k students - `learningtower` package in R (Wang, Yacobellis, Siregar, Romanes, Fitter, Valentino Dalla Riva, Cook, Tierney, Dingorkar, 2021) --- Who do you believe? Is it lightning đŠī¸ or đĨ arson? <a href="https://twitter.com/MRobertsQLD/status/1220588928706568193"> <img src="images/1602783588.png" width = "50%" style = "float: left"/> </a> <img src="images/bushfire-inforgraphic-not-normal-768x768.jpg" width = "50%" style = "float: right"/> --- count: false # đ Data Sources .monash-red2[**đĨ Historical fire origins**]: 2000-2019 .font_my_2[[Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning](https://discover.data.vic.gov.au/dataset/fire-origins-current-and-historical)] .monash-red2[**đĄ Remote sensing data**]: .font_my_2[[Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency](https://www.eorc.jaxa.jp/ptree/userguide.html)] .font_my[ **Wind speed data**: 1-day, 7-day, ..., 2-year averages from .font_my_2[[Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation and Automated Surface Observing System](https://doi.org/10.25919/5c5106acbcb02)] **Temperature, Rainfall and Solar exposure**: 1-day, 7-day , 14-day, 28-day, ..., 720-day averages computed from .font_my_2[[Bureau of Meteorology](https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=bomrang)] **Fuel layer**: Forest type, forest height class, forest crown cover from .font_my_2[[Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics](https://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/forestsaustralia/forest-data-maps-and-tools/spatial-data/forest-cover)] **Road map**: Proximity to the nearest road using .font_my_2[[OpenStreetMap](%20https://www.openstreetmap.org%20)] **Fire stations**: Proximity to the nearest CFA station .font_my_2[[Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning](https://discover.data.vic.gov.au/dataset/cfa-fire-station-vmfeat-geomark_point)] **Recreation sites**: Proximity to the nearest camping site .font_my_2[[Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning](https://discover.data.vic.gov.au/dataset/recreation-sites)] ] --- count: false # đĄ Remote sensing data Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency provides a hotspot product (reflected energy from the earth) taken from the **Himawari-8** satellite, access as described in [Williamson gist](https://gist.github.com/ozjimbob/80254988922140fec4c06e3a43d069a6) <img src="images/hotspots_before.png" style="width: 80%; float:center"/> --- count: false # đģ Data fusion <img src="images/data_fusion.png" style="width: 100%; float:center"/> --- count: false # Detect ignitions by clustering hotspot data <img src="images/clustering1.png" style="width: 90%; float:center"/> <img src="images/clustering2.png" style="width: 90%; float:center"/> Algorithm available in the `spotoroo` package (Li, Cook, Dodwell, 2021) and documented [here](https://github.com/TengMCing/Hotspots-Clustering-Algorithm/tree/master/paper-RJ). --- count: false # đģ Estimated ignition spots 76,000 hotspots reduced to 1,000 ignition sites. <img src="images/hotspots_after.png" style="width: 100%; float:left"/> <!-- <img src="images/hotspots_before_summary.png" style="width: 50%; float:right"/> --> --- count: false # đ **Prediction for 2019-2020 Australia bushfires**
--- count: false # đ What we learned .monash-blue[- Majority (82%) of the bushfires in 2019-2020 season were caused by **lightning**.] - 138 bushfires caused by accidents which took up 14% of the total fires. Most of them were ignited in March. - 37 bushfires (4%) were caused by arsonists, and over half of them were in March. - Very few planned burns were predicted after October 2019 which model is doing the right thing. <br> <table class=" lightable-classic table" style="font-family: Cambria; width: auto !important; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; font-size: 20px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> Cause </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Oct </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Nov </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Dec </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Jan </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Feb </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Mar </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Total </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Lightning </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 19 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 57 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 315 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 266 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 32 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 149 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 838 (0.82) </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Accident </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 34 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 13 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 80 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 138 (0.14) </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Arson </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 10 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 21 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 37 (0.04) </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Burning_off </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 0 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 (0.01) </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> --- count: false # Shiny app: https://ebsmonash.shinyapps.io/VICfire/ <iframe src="https://ebsmonash.shinyapps.io/VICfire/?showcase=0" width="110%" height="550px" data-external="1"></iframe> --- # Summary <br><br> - Open data and open source software have revolutionised data analysis today, - teaching, - understanding the world, - making it accessible to the masses - AI needs data and software --- # Discussion questions Noting use of "AI" as loosely analogous to "predictive analytics" - Will the .monash-blue2[ability to download open data and use open source software] to check what others are reporting or that AI is behaving itself, continue into the future? - Should an AI system be required to provide a .monash-blue2[diagnostic tool], to allow a user to unpack its results? - How does AI .monash-blue2[utilise open data]? (e.g. Watson) How should open data usage be acknowledged in reporting results? - Should there be legal oversight to .monash-blue2[prevent obfuscation] for profit? - Does a government organisation, like BOM, ABS, have an obligation to citizens to provide the data that they collect .monash-blue2[from citizens to citizens]? --- background-image: url(images/titleimage.png) background-size: cover class: hide-slide-number split-70 count: false .column.shade_black[.content[ <br> ## Acknowledgements [https://bit.ly/Cook-MDFI](https://bit.ly/Cook-MDFI) plus reproducing materials at [https://github.com/dicook/Monash-MDFI](https://github.com/dicook/Monash-MDFI). Slides produced using [Rmarkdown](https://github.com/rstudio/rmarkdown) with [xaringan](https://github.com/yihui/xaringan) styling. Monash style by the kunoichi, Dr Emi Tanaka. `learningtower` package is available on CRAN and [Kevin's GitHub repo](https://github.com/kevinwang09/learningtower/). `spotoroo` package is available on CRAN and [Patrick's GitHub repo](https://github.com/TengMCing/spotoroo). ## Thanks for listening! <a rel="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/"><img alt="Creative Commons License" style="border-width:0" src="https://i.creativecommons.org/l/by-sa/4.0/88x31.png" /></a><br />This work is licensed under a <a rel="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License</a>. ]] <div class="column transition monash-m-new delay-1s" style="clip-path:url(#swipe__clip-path);"> <div class="background-image" style="background-image:url('images/large.png');background-position: center;background-size:cover;margin-left:3px;"> <svg class="clip-svg absolute"> <defs> <clipPath id="swipe__clip-path" clipPathUnits="objectBoundingBox"> <polygon points="0.5745 0, 0.5 0.33, 0.42 0, 0 0, 0 1, 0.27 1, 0.27 0.59, 0.37 1, 0.634 1, 0.736 0.59, 0.736 1, 1 1, 1 0, 0.5745 0" /> </clipPath> </defs> </svg> </div> </div>